Who really did well at Keeneland? A closer look at the sires behind September’s record sale

Keeneland closed its September Yearling Sale with another record, and the headline numbers were impressive. Buyers spent $536.7 million through the ring, up 5.1% from last year. The average reached $187,933, and the median rose to $85,000. Seventy yearlings brought $1 million or more.

For a breeder trying to decide where to send a mare, though, the sale total only goes so far. Which sires sold well across a meaningful group of horses? How much did those yearlings bring compared with the fee paid to produce them? And how often did a horse actually find a buyer?

We reviewed all 4,642 catalogue entries, covering 190 sires, to get a clearer picture. Gun Runner led in gross receipts and average price. Yaupon and Vekoma stood out when prices were measured against their advertised 2024 stud fees. Life Is Good combined substantial prices with a particularly strong rate of sales.

The biggest prices still belonged to the established names

Gun Runner’s 50 yearlings sold through the ring brought $40.817 million, averaging $816,340. His median was $562,500. Into Mischief had a higher median at $650,000, with Not This Time close behind at $612,500.

That difference matters. An average can move sharply when a few exceptional horses sell for millions. The median gives us the middle price among the horses that sold. Neither tells the entire story, but together they make it harder for one spectacular result to stand in for a whole sire’s sale.

Not This Time deserves attention on both measures. His 52 sales averaged $755,385, and 80% of the horses offered sold through the ring. His $612,500 median was just over four times his initial advertised 2024 fee of $150,000. Nyquist also put together a strong result: 54 sold, a $430,000 median and an 81.8% sale rate.

Yaupon and Vekoma made the historical fee comparison interesting

The right starting point for this crop is the 2024 breeding season. Those matings produced the 2025 foals that went through the ring as yearlings this September. Comparing their prices with a 2026 fee answers a different question.

Vekoma’s $150,000 median was ten times his advertised 2024 fee of $15,000. Yaupon’s $225,000 median was nine times his $25,000 fee. Those are striking relationships, even before looking at the million-dollar end of the market.

Yaupon’s result looks more convincing across the group. He sold 53 yearlings through the ring, compared with 36 for Vekoma, and his sale rate was 81.5% against 72.0%. Yaupon’s lower-quartile price was $150,000, meaning roughly three-quarters of his sold horses brought at least that amount. Vekoma’s lower quartile was $63,750.

Both had good sales relative to their historical fees. Yaupon combined that strength with a higher price floor among the horses that sold.

Selected sires: median price against the initial advertised 2024 fee
Sire	Sold	Median	2024 fee	Multiple
Vekoma	36	$150,000	$15,000	10.00×
Yaupon	53	$225,000	$25,000	9.00×
Nyquist	54	$430,000	$85,000	5.06×
Girvin	48	$145,000	$30,000	4.83×
Up to the Mark	49	$120,000	$25,000	4.80×
Not This Time	52	$612,500	$150,000	4.08×

Through-the-ring sales only. US dollars. A multiple measures gross sale price against an advertised fee, before other costs.

Nyquist, Girvin and Up to the Mark also produced attractive median-to-fee comparisons. These are selected examples with at least 20 sales, rather than a complete ranking. The practical question is how much room the sale price leaves after all the other costs of producing a yearling.

A horse that sells matters as much as a horse that sells high

Life Is Good sold 68 yearlings through the ring at a median of $312,500. His 91.9% sale rate is a large part of why that performance stands out. Strong prices were supported by a high proportion of offered horses finding buyers.

The first yearling sires offered some useful contrasts. Gunite generated $12.694 million from 72 ring sales, showing substantial demand across a large group. Cody’s Wish had a higher median at $285,000 from 37 ring sales, but his sale rate was 60.7%. That is a strong price result with a less comfortable clearance result.

Up to the Mark sold 49 at a $120,000 median, or 4.8 times his initial $25,000 fee. Golden Pal’s median was $100,000 from 41 sold, four times his $25,000 fee, with a 93.2% sale rate. For these young sires, the market has expressed an opinion about their yearlings. Their runners will have to supply the next evidence.

Today’s fees change the calculation

A breeder cannot book a mare at a fee that has already disappeared. Vekoma’s advertised 2026 fee was $100,000. Against that figure, this sale’s $150,000 median is 1.5 times the fee, rather than ten times. Yaupon’s advertised 2026 fee was $60,000, putting his median at 3.75 times that figure.

This does not diminish what the breeders of these yearlings achieved. It shows why a successful sale can be a poor shortcut to the next mating decision. The fee, the mare and the eventual market will all be different. These comparisons use announced 2026 fees, not a confirmed quote for a future booking.

The record sale still left plenty of pressure on sellers

In our catalogue analysis, the 70 million-dollar horses accounted for only 2.5% of ring sales but almost 20% of the money. At the other end, 1,021 yearlings sold below $50,000. More than half sold below $100,000.

Among sires with at least 20 ring sales, eight had medians below their initial advertised 2024 fees: Jack Christopher, Epicenter, Essential Quality, Olympiad, Authentic, Twirling Candy, Munnings and Charlatan. A median below the fee is a serious commercial pressure point before raising and selling costs are considered. It does not mean every breeder lost money, or that every horse by those sires was poorly received.

Stud fees are only one expense. Mare costs, veterinary work, board, preparation, transport, commissions and financing all sit behind the price on the results sheet. Horses that fail to reach the sale or fail to sell matter too. A price-to-fee multiple is a useful comparison, but it is not a profit margin.

For us, Yaupon’s depth, Vekoma’s result against his old fee, Nyquist’s combination of price and clearance, and Life Is Good’s high sale rate are among the more useful takeaways. Gun Runner, Into Mischief and Not This Time remained formidable at the top. A breeder’s next step is to examine the individual horses, the mares behind them and the fee available for the next season. September gives us evidence for that decision. It cannot make the decision for us.

How we counted

Formline calculations use the September 28, 2026 catalogue snapshot. “Sold” means sold through the ring. Post-sale transactions, unsold bids and withdrawals are excluded from prices. The sale rate divides ring sales by all horses offered, including those later sold privately. Post-sales are therefore not counted as ring sales. This is why some sire totals differ from Keeneland’s post-sale-inclusive figures.

We verified advertised 2024 US-dollar fees for 140 sires, covering 97.5% of ring-sold yearlings. Where initial and later published fees differ, this analysis uses the initial fee; actual contracts may differ. It does not adjust for mare quality, catalogue placement, physical condition or veterinary findings. These are results from one selected sale, not the entire foal crop. They measure commercial reception, not future racing ability.

Sources

Sale statistics and sire comparisons: Formline analysis of the linked catalogue. Overall market comparison: Keeneland’s closing report. Historical and selected current fees: published farm announcements and fee reporting linked above.