Breeders Followed the Sale Ring in 2026

The Jockey Club released its 2026 Report of Mares Bred on Tuesday, and the top-line number is one we've gotten used to. Through Oct. 1, 670 stallions covered 23,932 mares in North America, down 3% from the same point last year. The stallion count fell faster, down 9.2%, so the average book rose from 33.4 mares to 35.7. Kentucky now gets almost 70% of all mares bred. Everywhere else, mares bred fell 12.5%. The Jockey Club expects another 2,000 to 3,000 mares to be reported for 2026, so the final totals will be higher, and it projects a 2027 foal crop of 16,500.

In that market, a stallion who adds 50 or 100 mares is telling you something. Here are the biggest gains, using 2025 figures compiled by the Paulick Report.

2026 figures from The Jockey Club's RMB data as of Oct. 13. 2025 figures are from the Paulick Report, which compiled the year-over-year gains, and may be full-season totals, so the two columns aren't measured at exactly the same point. Late reports can still move the 2026 numbers.

My read: the money followed evidence, and the fastest evidence on a young sire comes from the sale ring, not the racetrack.

Corniche is the clearest case. His first crop are 2-year-olds this year, and his book doubled before most of them had run. His first yearlings sold well at Keeneland September last fall, averaging $526,667 for six sold in Books 1 and 2 as of mid-sale, per TrueNicks. Then a Corniche colt brought $1.35 million at OBS March. At that same sale, Drain the Clock's juveniles posted the fastest times at their distances three days running, and one of his colts sold for $1.1 million. Juvenile sales land in the middle of the breeding season, so breeders can act on them that same spring. They did. Drain the Clock added 88 mares.

It's a reasonable bet. It's also one a lot of people made at once, and the 2028 yearling market will show it.

Gunite and Up to the Mark grew before any of their yearlings had sold, so those books were mostly a bet on pedigree. Gunite is by Gun Runner. Up to the Mark is by Not This Time. So far it's held up: at Keeneland September this year, Up to the Mark led his first-crop class by average at $487,222, and Gunite ranked third at $300,625.

Girvin is a different story. He started at Ocala Stud in Florida and moved to Kentucky after his first crop produced Grade 1 winner Faiza. His first Kentucky-breds are 2-year-olds this year, and he was North America's fourth-leading sire of 2-year-olds when he died suddenly at Airdrie on Aug. 8, at 12. Those 223 mares are his final book.

The comebacks

Honor A. P. went from 19 mares to 110. Whatever kept his 2025 book that small, it didn't last. Lane's End cut his fee from $10,000 to $7,500, and his runners had already given breeders a reason to return. Margie's Intention won the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan last year, Romeo topped the Fasig-Tipton July sale at $1.7 million, and Counting Stars won two stakes at Oaklawn at 2. She won the Grade 2 Fantasy in late March and ran third in the Kentucky Oaks, but her Grade 1 wins in the Acorn and the Coaching Club American Oaks came after most of the season was over. Lane's End now lists him back at $10,000. His 2027 book should be better still.

Instagrand (12 to 65) and Maximum Security (12 to 62), using Paulick's 2025 numbers, show what a farm can do. Taylor Made cut Instagrand from $10,000 to $8,000, then in December added him to its State-Bred Initiative, aimed at breeders foaling outside Kentucky. Maximum Security left Ashford for Breakway Farm in Indiana at $3,500, leased by Gary and Mary West to an Indiana partnership. Same horse, better price, and a state program behind him.

Regional sires bucked a bad trend

The state numbers are rough. Louisiana was down 43.3% in mares bred, Florida 14.6%, California 13.9%. A handful of regional sires grew anyway, and most have something specific behind it.

Collected went from 52 to 95, per Paulick's 2025 figure, after moving from Airdrie to Rancho San Miguel. He's California's leading sire at $7,500, and he grew while the state shrank. Neolithic, also by Paulick's count, went from 50 to 73 at Pleasant Acres in Florida for $5,000. Roadster, whose first 2-year-olds are running this year, added 54 at Ocala Stud.

First Mondays went from 5 to 35 in Maryland (2025 figure via Paulick) at $1,000. He's a son of Curlin whose runners have done a lot from very few foals. Straight Fire's California books went 61, 41, 12, and then 3 last year. He moved to Blue Ribbon Farm in Washington for $2,500, the farm said about 25 mares was realistic, and he covered exactly 25. Washington bred 70 mares in the whole state in 2025, so that matters there. Cross Traffic covered 59 mares in Virginia, where mares bred tripled, from 30 to 92.

Don't read much into the percentages. Three to 25 is a relocation, not a trend. But the pattern holds: regional breeding grows when a farm gives breeders a specific reason, whether that's a move, a price, or an incentive.

The top end isn't shrinking

Gun Runner went from 218 to 250 at $250,000, the fourth-biggest book in North America, and had 15 seven-figure yearlings in Books 1 and 2 at Keeneland September. Not This Time, the leading general sire as of mid-September, went from 214 to 230 at $250,000. Into Mischief went from 176 to 194 at the same fee, and Golden Pal, a freshman sire this year at $25,000, went from 198 to 221, based on Paulick's 2025 numbers.

So the market is smaller and more concentrated, and the people still breeding are putting mares where they've seen proof. For young sires, that proof is a breeze time and a hammer price. For regional sires, it's a farm that made the deal work. The Jockey Club's new director of State Breeder and Provincial Programs, Najja Thompson, starts Oct. 28. Those regional horses are a good place for him to start.